KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

88%

85%

39%

29%

19%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

EPSNO 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.30u · EPS −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.1%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	62.7%	—	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	—	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	31.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	50.6%	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	35.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	4.5%	55.4%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	58.4%	50.7%	8.2%	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	54.4%	40.6%	15.2%	—	21.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.0%	58.3%	44.7%	3.8%	—	14.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	50.8%	28.8%	31.6%	—	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	1.0%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	62.3%	33.0%	20.1%	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	44.0%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	59.6%	31.4%	22.1%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	51.8%	29.4%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	48.2%	38.2%	55.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	37.9%	34.3%	—	—	26.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	37.6%	30.4%	38.5%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.0%	29.9%	35.3%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	22.7%	34.9%	26.8%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	25.3%	34.5%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	56.5%	39.2%	37.1%	38.2%	—	16.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	34.6%	29.6%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	35.2%	35.2%	27.0%	0.0%	15.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	42.8%	38.1%	28.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	46.3%	42.6%	33.1%	20.8%	16.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	46.1%	36.1%	42.3%	24.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	43.3%	38.1%	44.6%	21.0%	17.3%	12.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	52.8%	48.6%	26.5%	—	16.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	66.9%	57.2%	33.1%	31.8%	17.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.0%	—	59.0%	28.5%	—	10.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	54.7%	—	27.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	88%	74.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	73.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	71.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	39%	69.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	68.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	19%	67.7°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗