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KDCA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
88%
WN2
85%
ICON
39%
HRES
29%
EPS
19%
Consensus
62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 53.7¢Risks 53.70u
VS
EPSNO 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.30u · EPS −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:11+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00AIFS Single: 88.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 19.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:11+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS HRES: 28.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:11+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 07:5110-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:11+00:0082.0%19.4%84.1%28.6%27.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:0082.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%27.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0082.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%27.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0082.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%27.7%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0088.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%38.8%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0088.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%38.8%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:0088.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%38.8%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0088.0%19.4%84.9%28.6%38.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single88%74.1°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 285%73.5°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
National Blend67%71.0°F1.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON39%69.5°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES29%68.4°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble19%67.7°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗