KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

82%

79%

57%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.8¢Risks 76.80u

HRESNO 23.2¢Risks 23.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.20u · HRES −23.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	58.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	36.8%	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	43.1%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	94.0%	—	—	83.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.5%	61.3%	93.2%	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.2%	—	92.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	78.6%	85.5%	29.8%	—	59.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	58.0%	74.0%	62.9%	—	69.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	88.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	84.9%	76.1%	91.0%	—	70.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	90.7%	69.8%	84.1%	—	39.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	34.1%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	76.2%	83.8%	48.3%	79.9%	—	54.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	67.4%	69.7%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	71.6%	69.3%	77.2%	—	50.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	68.2%	77.1%	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	47.2%	74.1%	69.5%	—	44.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	62.1%	69.9%	—	—	40.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	74.5%	78.2%	67.0%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	57.0%	75.1%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	74.1%	74.9%	53.1%	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	78.0%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	83.1%	71.8%	65.9%	—	43.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	75.1%	78.6%	70.4%	4.5%	—	40.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	75.8%	74.0%	54.6%	6.8%	43.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	83.3%	76.6%	58.4%	—	48.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	80.9%	88.8%	80.9%	68.0%	62.3%	53.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	82.6%	69.8%	—	53.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	69.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	66.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	64.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗