KDCA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

92%

82%

79%

57%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 76.8¢Risks 76.80u

HRESNO 23.2¢Risks 23.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.20u · HRES −23.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:40:57+00:00	93.2%	57.4%	98.6%	70.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:11+00:00	93.2%	57.4%	98.6%	70.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	93.2%	57.4%	98.9%	70.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	93.2%	57.4%	98.9%	70.4%	89.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	87.2%	57.4%	98.9%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	87.2%	57.4%	98.9%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	87.2%	57.4%	98.9%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	87.2%	57.4%	98.9%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	87.2%	57.4%	98.9%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	87.2%	94.3%	97.7%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	87.2%	94.3%	97.7%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	87.2%	94.3%	97.7%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	93.7%	94.3%	97.7%	65.5%	81.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	93.6%	94.3%	97.6%	65.5%	81.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	92.5%	95.2%	91.0%	61.8%	61.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	92.5%	95.2%	94.3%	61.8%	61.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	92.5%	95.2%	94.3%	61.8%	61.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	92.5%	95.2%	94.3%	61.8%	61.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	92.5%	95.2%	94.3%	61.8%	61.3%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	92.0%	95.2%	94.3%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	92.0%	95.2%	94.3%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	92.0%	95.2%	94.3%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	92.0%	95.2%	94.3%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	92.0%	89.2%	97.8%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	92.0%	89.2%	97.8%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	92.0%	89.2%	97.8%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	92.0%	89.2%	97.8%	51.8%	80.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	93.0%	88.3%	97.8%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:31+00:00	93.0%	88.3%	97.8%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	93.0%	82.1%	97.8%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	93.0%	82.1%	97.8%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	93.0%	82.1%	96.9%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	93.0%	82.1%	96.9%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	93.0%	82.1%	96.9%	51.8%	80.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.9%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.9%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.9%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.9%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.9%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	89.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	92.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	92.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	92.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	92.3%	82.1%	96.5%	57.1%	78.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	69.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	92%	69.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	66.0°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	79%	66.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	64.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	64.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 04:40 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗