KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

76%

49%

32%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

HRESNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.00u · HRES −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	93.5%	—	—	68.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	82.0%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	25.4%	58.1%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	83.4%	56.3%	63.1%	—	49.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	80.1%	12.4%	52.2%	—	26.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.8%	40.2%	16.0%	77.8%	—	36.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	34.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	67.7%	62.5%	80.5%	—	42.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	15.8%	68.1%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	62.3%	70.0%	70.7%	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	82.7%	57.6%	70.4%	—	—	50.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	84.9%	82.2%	74.5%	62.9%	—	51.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	77.1%	80.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	83.4%	73.4%	77.0%	53.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	69.9%	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	76.0%	74.5%	61.5%	—	56.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	76.6%	75.1%	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	69.7%	78.1%	49.0%	—	57.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	87.4%	83.1%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	88.1%	83.8%	66.9%	47.8%	60.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	80.2%	0.5%	—	57.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	81.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	84%	74.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	68.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	67.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	64.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	61.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗