KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

84%

78%

76%

49%

32%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 58.0¢Risks 58.00u

HRESNO 42.0¢Risks 42.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +42.00u · HRES −42.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:05+00:00	72.1%	81.5%	86.4%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	72.1%	72.4%	86.4%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:05+00:00	72.1%	72.4%	86.4%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	87.3%	72.4%	86.1%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	87.3%	72.4%	86.1%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:42+00:00	87.3%	75.5%	86.1%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	87.3%	75.5%	86.1%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	87.3%	75.5%	90.0%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	87.3%	75.5%	90.0%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	87.3%	75.5%	90.0%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	87.3%	75.5%	90.0%	47.5%	52.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	90.0%	31.4%	84.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	90.0%	31.4%	84.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	90.0%	31.4%	84.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	90.0%	31.4%	84.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	78.4%	31.4%	84.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	78.4%	31.5%	84.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	43.7%	75.5%	78.4%	31.5%	84.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	48.6%	75.5%	78.4%	31.5%	84.5%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	48.6%	75.5%	78.4%	31.5%	84.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	48.6%	75.5%	78.4%	31.5%	84.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	48.6%	75.5%	78.4%	31.5%	84.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	84%	74.6°F	9.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	68.5°F	5.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	67.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	65.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	64.3°F	5.7°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	61.4°F	6.4°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 65°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗