KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

18%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.8¢Risks 10.85u

EPSNO 89.1¢Risks 89.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.15u · EPS −89.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	35.3%	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	14.8%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.4%	3.4%	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	7.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	12.6%	2.5%	3.8%	—	1.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.7%	0.0%	1.6%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.1%	6.3%	—	0.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	2.6%	1.9%	6.2%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.0%	2.4%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	1.4%	2.3%	2.5%	—	0.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	0.9%	2.1%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	5.4%	4.3%	2.4%	1.1%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.5%	3.2%	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.6%	2.1%	0.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.0%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.3%	1.2%	0.4%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	1.1%	1.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.5%	1.0%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.0%	1.3%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.7%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	22%	72.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	72.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	70.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗