KDCA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

18%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.8¢Risks 10.85u

EPSNO 89.1¢Risks 89.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.15u · EPS −89.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:57+00:00	6.1%	1.5%	11.4%	2.5%	12.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	6.1%	1.5%	11.4%	2.5%	12.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:18+00:00	6.1%	1.5%	11.4%	2.5%	12.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:03+00:00	6.1%	1.5%	11.4%	2.5%	12.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	6.1%	1.5%	11.4%	2.5%	12.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	16.7%	1.2%	10.0%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	16.7%	1.2%	10.0%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:42+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	10.0%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	10.0%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	13.9%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:34+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	13.9%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:54+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	13.9%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	13.9%	2.7%	12.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	21.5%	0.1%	18.4%	3.6%	10.1%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	18.4%	3.4%	10.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	18.4%	3.4%	10.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	18.4%	3.4%	10.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	21.6%	0.1%	18.4%	3.4%	10.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	22%	72.9°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	18%	72.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	70.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	67.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	1%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Washington runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗