KDCA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

87%

78%

48%

40%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

HRESNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.45u · HRES −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	85.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.8%	—	—	—	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.6%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	72.7%	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	43.3%	65.8%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	11.2%	77.0%	34.3%	—	31.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	35.0%	65.0%	54.4%	—	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	41.7%	70.4%	73.6%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	42.1%	47.6%	31.6%	—	27.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	3.1%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	66.2%	38.5%	52.5%	41.7%	—	23.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	47.4%	49.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	67.8%	69.3%	56.1%	71.6%	33.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	70.6%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	72.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	66.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	78%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	63.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	61.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	60.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗