KDCA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

87%

78%

48%

40%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

HRESNO 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.45u · HRES −33.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:31+00:00	81.3%	51.1%	74.0%	20.2%	58.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	81.3%	44.9%	74.0%	20.2%	58.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:46+00:00	81.3%	44.9%	74.0%	20.2%	58.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	81.3%	44.9%	76.7%	20.2%	58.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	81.3%	44.9%	76.7%	20.2%	58.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:45+00:00	81.3%	44.9%	76.7%	20.2%	58.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:53+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	76.7%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	76.7%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	76.7%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	76.7%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	76.7%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	72.9%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:28+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:52+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:02+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T04:30:21+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	81.6%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T05:16:54+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	78.0%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	78.0%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	72.3%	44.9%	78.0%	39.3%	64.2%
2026-10-19T07:32:36+00:00	81.8%	44.9%	78.0%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	81.8%	44.9%	78.0%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	81.8%	44.9%	78.0%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	81.8%	44.9%	78.0%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:55+00:00	81.8%	44.9%	78.0%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T11:20:36+00:00	81.8%	35.9%	88.3%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:27+00:00	81.8%	35.9%	88.3%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:49+00:00	81.8%	35.9%	88.3%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	82.9%	35.9%	88.3%	20.8%	60.9%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	82.9%	35.9%	88.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	82.9%	36.9%	88.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	82.9%	36.9%	88.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	82.9%	36.9%	88.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	82.9%	36.9%	89.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	82.9%	36.9%	89.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T18:59:47+00:00	82.9%	36.9%	89.3%	20.8%	61.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	89.3%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	89.3%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	89.3%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	89.3%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	89.3%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:33+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:02+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T04:03:50+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:13+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	88.8%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:26+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	85.4%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	58.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	78.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	78.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:16+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	78.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	86.3%	36.9%	90.1%	29.0%	78.2%
2026-10-20T10:52:59+00:00	86.3%	42.8%	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	86.3%	42.8%	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	86.3%	42.8%	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	86.3%	42.8%	93.7%	39.7%	78.2%
2026-10-20T13:55:08+00:00	86.3%	42.8%	93.7%	39.7%	78.3%
2026-10-20T14:46:19+00:00	86.3%	42.8%	93.7%	39.7%	78.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:33+00:00	86.3%	47.6%	93.7%	39.7%	78.3%
2026-10-20T16:17:57+00:00	86.3%	47.6%	93.7%	39.7%	78.3%
2026-10-20T17:03:10+00:00	86.8%	47.6%	93.4%	39.7%	78.3%
2026-10-20T17:48:34+00:00	86.8%	47.6%	93.4%	39.7%	78.3%
2026-10-20T18:33:42+00:00	86.8%	47.6%	93.4%	39.7%	78.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	67.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	87%	66.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	78%	65.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	63.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	61.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	60.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗