KDCA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

58%

48%

30%

13%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.3¢Risks 41.30u

HRESNO 58.7¢Risks 58.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.70u · HRES −58.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	38.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	85.2%	—	25.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.6%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.7%	—	60.9%	—	—	44.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	30.6%	52.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	5.8%	65.1%	22.4%	—	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	22.6%	50.7%	39.9%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	27.7%	56.1%	59.8%	—	22.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	27.4%	32.3%	18.9%	—	15.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	1.2%	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.8%	36.1%	26.5%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	31.1%	32.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	46.5%	50.9%	52.6%	38.8%	55.2%	19.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	53.6%	—	—	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	63.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	61.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗