KDCA / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Washington, DCHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

70%

58%

48%

30%

13%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.3¢Risks 41.30u

HRESNO 58.7¢Risks 58.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.70u · HRES −58.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:43:58+00:00	19.7%	70.7%	83.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	19.7%	70.7%	83.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	19.7%	70.7%	83.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	19.7%	70.7%	83.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	19.7%	70.7%	83.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	19.7%	58.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	19.7%	58.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	19.7%	58.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	43.1%	58.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	43.1%	58.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	43.1%	60.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	43.1%	60.1%	78.9%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	43.1%	60.1%	63.0%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	43.1%	60.1%	63.0%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	43.1%	60.1%	63.0%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	43.1%	60.1%	63.0%	21.5%	56.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	63.0%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	63.0%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	63.0%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	63.0%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	27.1%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:10+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	43.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	57.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	57.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	57.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	63.6%	60.1%	57.8%	44.5%	33.6%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	55.9%	60.1%	57.8%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	55.9%	60.1%	57.8%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	55.9%	60.1%	57.8%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	55.9%	60.1%	57.8%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	55.9%	29.9%	58.5%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	55.9%	29.9%	58.5%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	55.9%	29.9%	58.5%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	55.9%	29.9%	58.5%	12.8%	47.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	69.8%	30.1%	58.5%	12.8%	47.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	70%	66.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	48%	63.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	30%	61.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	56.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDCA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDCA-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Washington high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗