KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

21%

20%

13%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 28.5¢Risks 28.50u

WN2NO 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +71.50u · WN2 −71.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	24.4%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	5.0%	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	26.9%	0.0%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	1.3%	4.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	10.7%	7.0%	—	8.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	8.4%	11.5%	8.4%	—	5.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	7.4%	0.6%	—	8.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	5.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	2.8%	1.2%	11.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	16.1%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	17.2%	3.2%	17.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	21.7%	9.2%	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	23.2%	16.5%	28.7%	—	15.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	29.1%	10.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	25.9%	23.5%	33.0%	—	17.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	28.8%	41.6%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	29.2%	51.1%	26.4%	0.0%	19.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	23.1%	43.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	30.0%	45.4%	25.1%	—	24.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	24.4%	51.2%	24.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	21.7%	58.7%	17.4%	32.0%	20.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	21.9%	53.9%	20.9%	—	19.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	18.2%	51.3%	20.0%	33.1%	22.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	31.2%	56.9%	25.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	31.8%	48.5%	23.4%	41.4%	28.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	24.8%	44.0%	29.8%	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	18.1%	43.7%	16.1%	33.1%	17.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	37.0%	51.6%	30.9%	—	25.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
IFS HRES	50%	77.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2500
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.3481
IFS Ensemble	21%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.6304
AIFS Single	20%	74.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6368
ICON	13%	73.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.7586
WeatherNext 2	7%	73.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.8649

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗