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KDEN / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
50%
EPS
21%
AIFS
20%
ICON
13%
WN2
7%
Consensus
24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 28.5¢Risks 28.50u
VS
WN2NO 71.5¢Risks 71.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +71.50u · WN2 −71.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00AIFS Single: 16.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00AIFS Single: 20.2% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 20.6% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.6% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00ICON: 14.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0010-16 15:0510-16 21:5210-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T15:05:42+00:0013.3%20.6%7.9%50.0%14.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:0013.3%20.6%7.9%50.0%14.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:0013.3%20.6%7.9%50.0%14.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:0013.3%20.6%4.6%50.0%14.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:0013.3%20.6%4.6%50.0%14.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:0013.3%20.6%4.6%50.0%14.1%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:0016.8%20.6%4.6%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:0016.8%20.6%4.6%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:0016.8%20.6%4.6%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:0016.8%20.6%4.6%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:0016.8%20.6%4.6%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:0016.8%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:0016.8%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:0016.8%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:0020.2%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:0020.2%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:0020.2%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0020.2%20.6%7.0%50.0%12.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast56%78.0°F3.1°F2026-10-16 14:000.1901
IFS HRES50%77.5°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:000.2500
National Blend41%77.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:000.3481
IFS Ensemble21%74.2°F4.0°F2026-10-16 00:000.6304
AIFS Single20%74.2°F4.0°F2026-10-16 18:000.6368
ICON13%73.5°F3.5°F2026-10-16 12:000.7586
WeatherNext 27%73.2°F2.9°F2026-10-16 12:000.8649

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261017-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗