KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

71%

63%

60%

18%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.10u

ICONNO 53.9¢Risks 53.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.90u · ICON −53.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	46.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	81.5%	—	—	35.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	22.6%	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	50.7%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	6.9%	45.8%	0.0%	—	27.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.8%	15.2%	39.2%	32.3%	—	19.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	28.3%	23.9%	30.3%	—	24.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	20.1%	20.6%	7.5%	—	10.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	13.4%	14.3%	28.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	1.1%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	17.8%	18.4%	49.1%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	12.5%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.4%	14.4%	28.9%	62.7%	—	8.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	37.9%	49.0%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	17.7%	17.1%	33.0%	—	12.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	30.8%	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	20.4%	33.0%	23.5%	—	21.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	17.6%	48.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	20.6%	53.3%	24.7%	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	32.6%	51.1%	0.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	46.5%	20.7%	54.6%	40.8%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	41.6%	64.1%	40.5%	—	28.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	52.5%	64.6%	46.3%	53.7%	42.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	37.3%	42.3%	65.1%	73.1%	—	34.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	55.4%	63.2%	52.7%	40.7%	30.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	48.6%	58.3%	61.0%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	65.5%	51.4%	68.2%	68.2%	54.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.2%	63.3%	42.5%	88.0%	—	44.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	46.8%	37.6%	85.8%	46.8%	57.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	70.5%	63.0%	92.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	75.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	74.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	73.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	18%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗