KDEN / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

71%

63%

60%

18%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 46.1¢Risks 46.10u

ICONNO 53.9¢Risks 53.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +53.90u · ICON −53.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:10+00:00	59.9%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	59.9%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	59.9%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:03+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	52.4%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	45.2%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	45.2%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	45.7%	51.4%	45.2%	24.9%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	45.2%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	45.2%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	45.2%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	45.2%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	45.2%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	30.7%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	30.7%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	34.7%	51.4%	30.7%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	42.9%	51.4%	30.7%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	42.9%	51.4%	30.7%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	42.9%	51.4%	30.7%	25.9%	34.6%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	42.5%	41.2%	34.7%	45.1%	52.8%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	42.5%	41.2%	34.7%	45.1%	52.8%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	42.5%	41.2%	29.2%	45.1%	52.8%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	42.5%	41.2%	29.2%	45.1%	52.8%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	42.5%	41.2%	29.2%	45.1%	52.8%
2026-10-13T08:04:08+00:00	33.4%	41.2%	29.2%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	33.4%	41.2%	29.2%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	33.4%	41.2%	29.2%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	33.4%	41.2%	29.2%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	33.4%	41.2%	29.2%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:41+00:00	33.4%	49.2%	34.7%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	33.4%	49.2%	34.7%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	33.4%	49.2%	34.7%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	34.9%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	33.6%	49.2%	34.9%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	34.9%	20.3%	39.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	34.9%	20.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	33.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	39.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	32.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	32.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	32.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	28.8%	20.6%	32.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	44.2%	52.7%	32.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	44.2%	52.8%	32.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	36.6%	50.0%	44.2%	52.8%	32.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	44.2%	52.8%	32.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	44.2%	52.8%	32.3%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	49.2%	50.0%	44.2%	52.8%	32.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	50.0%	69.1%	37.4%	34.5%	30.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	50.0%	69.1%	37.4%	34.5%	30.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	50.0%	69.1%	37.4%	34.5%	30.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	50.0%	69.1%	42.5%	34.5%	30.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	50.0%	69.1%	42.5%	34.5%	30.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	50.0%	69.1%	42.5%	34.5%	30.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	42.5%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	42.5%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	42.5%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	42.5%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	42.5%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	44.8%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	48.3%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	48.3%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	48.3%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	48.3%	69.1%	40.4%	37.4%	27.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	53.7%	66.5%	39.5%	44.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	53.7%	66.5%	50.0%	44.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	53.7%	66.5%	50.0%	44.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	53.7%	66.5%	50.0%	44.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	53.7%	66.5%	50.0%	44.7%	21.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	50.0%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	50.0%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	50.0%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	50.0%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	61.0%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:52+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	41.8%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	65.4%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	26.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	70.6%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	70.6%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	70.6%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	70.6%	66.5%	47.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	70.6%	70.9%	62.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	70.6%	70.9%	62.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	70.6%	70.9%	62.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	70.6%	70.9%	62.6%	52.7%	17.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	74.6%	70.8%	62.6%	59.6%	17.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	75%	75.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	74.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	73.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	73.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	18%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261018-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 73°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗