KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

17%

15%

10%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 13.8¢Risks 6.88u

WN2NO 86.2¢Risks 43.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.12u · WN2 −43.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	42.5%	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	3.2%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	0.0%	5.8%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	21.9%	8.7%	0.0%	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	6.9%	13.2%	18.9%	—	14.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	14.2%	16.4%	18.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	16.4%	10.4%	13.1%	—	16.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	8.7%	15.7%	23.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	1.3%	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	13.6%	7.3%	9.4%	—	14.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	10.8%	5.7%	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.0%	6.3%	7.0%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	12.7%	7.4%	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	10.2%	8.2%	10.7%	—	11.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.6%	8.4%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.7%	5.2%	9.8%	0.0%	7.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	4.2%	5.2%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.0%	5.9%	6.2%	—	8.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.4%	5.4%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.0%	3.3%	5.4%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.5%	2.9%	6.6%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	4.6%	3.3%	5.9%	8.0%	4.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	4.6%	3.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	76.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	72.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
ICON	17%	71.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	15%	71.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	70.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗