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KDEN / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
21%
ICON
17%
EPS
15%
AIFS
10%
WN2
6%
Consensus
19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 13.8¢Risks 6.88u
VS
WN2NO 86.2¢Risks 43.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +43.12u · WN2 −43.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 22.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00AIFS Single: 9.1% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00AIFS Single: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00AIFS Single: 11.8% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 10.6% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 8.4% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 13.3% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.5% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 15.1% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.4% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.5% · 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 10.7% · 2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.3% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00IFS HRES: 54.4% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00IFS HRES: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00IFS HRES: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00IFS HRES: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 27.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00IFS HRES: 18.0% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS HRES: 16.6% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00IFS HRES: 33.0% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00IFS HRES: 21.2% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00ICON: 50.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00ICON: 26.2% · 2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00ICON: 26.3% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00ICON: 24.9% · 2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00ICON: 16.7% · 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0010-14 03:4510-15 21:3610-17 03:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T03:45:38+00:006.8%10.6%14.4%54.4%50.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:006.8%10.6%14.4%54.4%50.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:006.8%10.6%14.4%54.4%50.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:006.8%10.6%14.4%54.4%50.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:006.8%10.6%14.4%54.4%50.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:0013.7%10.6%14.4%54.4%26.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:0013.7%10.6%14.4%54.4%26.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:0013.7%10.6%14.4%54.4%26.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:0013.7%10.6%14.4%54.4%26.2%
2026-10-14T10:34:21+00:0013.7%10.6%14.4%27.6%26.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:58+00:0013.7%8.3%10.3%27.6%26.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:0013.7%8.3%10.3%27.6%26.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:0013.7%8.3%10.3%27.6%26.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:0022.5%8.3%10.3%27.6%26.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:0023.5%8.4%10.7%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:0023.5%7.3%10.7%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:0023.5%7.3%10.7%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:0023.5%7.3%10.7%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:0023.5%7.3%10.3%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:0023.5%7.3%10.3%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:0023.5%7.3%10.3%27.7%26.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:009.1%7.3%10.3%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:009.1%7.3%10.3%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:009.1%7.3%10.3%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:009.1%7.3%10.3%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:009.1%7.3%10.3%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:009.1%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:009.1%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:009.1%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:0013.3%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:0013.3%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:0013.3%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:0013.3%7.3%8.5%30.3%38.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:009.9%13.3%5.7%18.0%35.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:009.9%13.3%7.2%18.0%35.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:009.9%13.3%7.2%18.0%35.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:009.9%13.3%7.2%18.0%35.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:009.9%13.3%7.2%18.0%35.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:0011.8%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:0011.8%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:0011.8%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:0011.8%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:0011.8%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:0011.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:0011.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:0016.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:0016.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:0016.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:0016.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:0016.7%13.3%10.7%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:0016.7%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:0016.7%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:0016.7%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:0016.7%13.3%7.2%16.6%26.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:0011.1%13.3%7.2%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:0011.1%13.3%7.2%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:0011.1%13.3%7.2%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:0011.1%13.3%7.2%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:0011.1%16.5%9.4%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:0011.1%16.5%9.4%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:0011.1%16.5%9.4%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:0011.1%16.5%9.4%16.6%24.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:007.5%16.5%9.4%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:007.5%15.1%9.4%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:007.5%15.1%9.4%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:007.5%15.1%9.4%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:007.5%15.1%7.3%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:007.5%15.1%7.3%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:007.5%15.1%7.3%33.0%24.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:008.8%15.1%7.3%33.0%16.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:008.8%15.1%7.3%33.0%16.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:008.8%15.1%7.3%33.0%16.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:008.8%15.1%7.3%33.0%16.7%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:008.8%15.1%7.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:008.8%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:008.8%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:008.8%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:0010.3%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:0010.3%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:0010.3%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:0010.3%15.1%6.3%21.2%16.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast54%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-16 14:00Pending
National Blend41%76.0°F2.2°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS HRES21%72.5°F5.0°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
ICON17%71.8°F4.9°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble15%71.3°F5.0°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single10%70.7°F4.6°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 26%70.8°F3.7°F2026-10-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗