KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

24%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.1¢Risks 19.05u

WN2NO 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.95u · WN2 −80.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	4.8%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.1%	—	1.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	1.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.9%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	1.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.2%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	10.2%	1.9%	0.0%	1.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	14.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	13.2%	18.4%	11.7%	7.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	15.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	14.2%	9.3%	1.8%	12.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	6.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.1%	7.5%	3.3%	7.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	9.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.0%	12.5%	0.8%	8.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.4%	14.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	14.6%	23.4%	16.1%	9.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	10.3%	16.6%	—	12.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	7.0%	25.9%	12.9%	9.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	9.6%	25.3%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	6.2%	21.0%	21.0%	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.8%	8.0%	—	12.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	6.4%	9.4%	17.0%	14.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	5.5%	11.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.4%	13.7%	11.9%	14.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	12.9%	16.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	76.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	72.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗