KDEN / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

24%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 19.1¢Risks 19.05u

WN2NO 81.0¢Risks 80.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +80.95u · WN2 −80.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:43+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	8.3%	13.8%	7.2%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	8.3%	13.8%	7.2%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	8.3%	13.8%	7.2%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	7.2%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	7.2%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	8.5%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	7.2%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	31.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	31.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	31.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.3%	13.8%	31.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.3%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	9.2%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	7.1%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	7.1%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	7.1%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	7.1%	7.5%	6.6%	23.9%	31.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	32%	76.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	75.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	72.6°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	72.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	7%	73.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗