KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

46%

37%

27%

15%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 37.9¢Risks 37.85u

AIFSNO 62.1¢Risks 62.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +62.15u · AIFS −62.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	12.8%	—	4.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	6.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	32.4%	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	8.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	0.0%	7.7%	—	20.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	43.1%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	49.3%	28.6%	0.1%	25.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	45.6%	55.8%	27.2%	31.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	41.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	36.5%	15.1%	22.8%	25.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	37.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	46.8%	44.4%	27.4%	35.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	38.7%	—	41.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	36.1%	50.0%	18.9%	39.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.4%	35.0%	—	43.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	50.0%	55.2%	49.1%	42.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	24.9%	35.9%	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	42.7%	19.6%	18.4%	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	34.3%	26.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	22.5%	28.7%	5.9%	32.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	11.4%	38.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	77.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	75.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	72.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗