KDEN / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

46%

37%

27%

15%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 37.9¢Risks 37.85u

AIFSNO 62.1¢Risks 62.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +62.15u · AIFS −62.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	14.7%	24.5%	30.4%	68.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	14.7%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	14.7%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	14.7%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	14.7%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	67.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	11.0%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	11.0%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	11.0%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	11.0%	24.5%	25.2%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	11.0%	21.1%	26.7%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	11.0%	21.1%	26.7%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	11.0%	21.1%	26.7%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	11.0%	21.1%	26.7%	68.5%	66.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:53+00:00	11.5%	21.1%	26.7%	25.7%	66.8%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	7.5%	19.5%	31.9%	76.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	7.5%	19.5%	24.7%	76.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	7.5%	19.5%	24.7%	76.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	7.5%	19.5%	24.7%	76.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	24.7%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	24.7%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	24.7%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	24.7%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	17.2%	19.5%	24.7%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	17.2%	38.0%	29.6%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	17.2%	38.0%	29.6%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	17.2%	38.0%	29.6%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:54+00:00	16.7%	38.0%	29.6%	41.8%	64.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	16.6%	38.0%	29.6%	41.8%	64.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	13.3%	48.2%	29.6%	71.2%	57.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	13.3%	48.2%	26.0%	71.2%	57.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	13.3%	48.2%	26.0%	71.2%	57.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	13.3%	48.2%	26.0%	71.2%	57.3%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00	15.1%	48.2%	26.0%	60.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	15.1%	48.2%	26.0%	60.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	15.1%	48.2%	26.0%	60.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	15.1%	48.2%	26.0%	60.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00	15.1%	48.2%	26.0%	60.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00	15.1%	45.5%	37.2%	60.6%	27.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00	15.1%	45.5%	37.2%	60.6%	27.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	77.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	76.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	37%	75.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	75.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	27%	74.1°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	72.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 77°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗