KDEN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

29%

26%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.4¢Risks 29.35u

AIFSNO 70.6¢Risks 70.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.65u · AIFS −70.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	15.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	0.0%	—	35.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	75.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	32.4%	—	34.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	3.9%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.1%	41.9%	—	72.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	39.1%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	11.2%	31.7%	0.8%	72.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	85.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	31.7%	82.5%	15.6%	40.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	25.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	66.6°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	65.0°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	29%	61.7°F	6.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	61.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	56.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	55.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗