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KDEN / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Denver, COHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
56%
EPS
29%
HRES
26%
WN2
3%
AIFS
3%
Consensus
18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 29.4¢Risks 29.35u
VS
AIFSNO 70.6¢Risks 70.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.65u · AIFS −70.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 28.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 17.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.6% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 87.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00IFS HRES: 26.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 40.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00ICON: 56.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:004.4%44.0%17.9%87.4%40.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:004.4%44.0%6.6%87.4%40.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:004.4%44.0%6.6%87.4%40.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:004.4%44.0%6.6%87.4%40.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:37+00:002.6%44.0%6.6%26.2%56.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:002.6%44.0%6.6%26.2%56.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:002.6%44.0%6.6%26.2%56.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:002.6%44.0%6.6%26.2%56.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:002.6%44.0%6.6%26.2%56.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:002.6%28.8%3.3%26.2%56.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:38+00:002.6%28.8%3.3%26.2%56.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON56%66.6°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend48%65.0°F10.0°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble29%61.7°F6.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES26%61.3°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%56.9°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%55.0°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDEN

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDEN-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Denver high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗