KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

75%

70%

58%

34%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.8¢Risks 66.75u

ICONNO 33.2¢Risks 33.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.25u · ICON −33.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	96.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	87.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	85.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	97.2%	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	65.9%	—	—	84.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	53.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	63.4%	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	60.0%	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	48.6%	25.7%	83.8%	—	89.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	18.9%	99.9%	—	89.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	92.2%	49.2%	97.2%	—	84.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	91.3%	83.2%	61.0%	—	93.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	95.9%	86.7%	70.7%	—	89.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	61.8%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	80.4%	89.9%	33.8%	—	80.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	72.9%	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	73.4%	86.7%	38.2%	—	70.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	73.9%	87.3%	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	57.7%	81.7%	39.4%	—	56.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	63.7%	81.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	71.5%	76.5%	26.8%	—	39.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	56.3%	75.5%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	62.9%	77.8%	38.2%	0.0%	39.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.5%	59.0%	82.5%	2.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	58.1%	81.7%	35.2%	—	37.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	53.6%	76.6%	31.4%	—	1.2%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	42.6%	79.2%	42.6%	40.1%	56.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	42.3%	80.0%	41.0%	—	56.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	47.3%	85.1%	36.8%	51.3%	47.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	52.8%	87.5%	43.1%	—	48.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	60.1%	91.1%	55.8%	61.4%	44.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	60.5%	89.5%	53.0%	—	35.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	46.8%	86.6%	40.6%	63.9%	25.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	63.0%	89.3%	51.6%	—	48.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	75%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0610
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0615
IFS HRES	70%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0930
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1747
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
ICON	34%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4422

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗