KDFW / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

75%

70%

58%

34%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 66.8¢Risks 66.75u

ICONNO 33.2¢Risks 33.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +33.25u · ICON −33.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:37+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	56.8%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	56.8%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	56.8%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	77.6%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	33.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	33.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	33.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	62.1%	74.9%	33.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	62.1%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	76.1%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	75.3%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	75.3%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	75.3%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	75.3%	100.0%	58.2%	69.5%	33.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	74.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	75%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0610
National Blend	75%	65.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0615
IFS HRES	70%	65.4°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0930
WeatherNext 2	58%	64.1°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.1747
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1901
ICON	34%	62.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4422

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261017-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗