KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

46%

44%

39%

17%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

ICONNO 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.55u · ICON −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	63.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	23.1%	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	1.8%	30.6%	—	—	74.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	92.8%	72.0%	2.2%	—	60.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	90.0%	43.4%	53.6%	—	65.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	20.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	77.8%	30.3%	22.8%	—	56.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.7%	44.4%	47.6%	9.7%	—	32.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	34.5%	45.8%	8.0%	—	17.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.9%	9.2%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	26.9%	55.2%	6.2%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	40.2%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	38.2%	53.7%	9.0%	—	19.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	23.1%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	29.6%	43.2%	13.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	29.9%	38.2%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	31.2%	42.8%	17.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	25.3%	44.7%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	33.1%	48.9%	19.0%	0.0%	28.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	31.5%	52.2%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	25.1%	50.0%	13.4%	9.4%	9.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	19.9%	48.8%	11.4%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	38.9%	50.0%	13.7%	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	23.8%	38.5%	13.5%	—	20.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	24.0%	38.1%	13.4%	7.4%	20.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	28.8%	33.8%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	25.6%	30.5%	22.2%	14.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	85%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	75.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	17%	73.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗