KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

46%

44%

39%

17%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 48.5¢Risks 48.45u

ICONNO 51.5¢Risks 51.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +51.55u · ICON −51.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:05+00:00	42.2%	92.4%	12.9%	50.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	42.2%	92.4%	13.5%	50.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	42.2%	92.4%	13.5%	50.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	42.2%	92.4%	13.5%	50.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	42.2%	92.4%	13.5%	50.0%	41.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	13.5%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	13.5%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	13.5%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	13.5%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:45+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	15.4%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:17+00:00	33.9%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	53.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	36.3%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	36.3%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	36.3%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	36.3%	92.4%	17.3%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:23+00:00	36.3%	94.4%	8.2%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:42+00:00	36.3%	94.4%	8.2%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	36.3%	94.4%	8.2%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:48+00:00	36.3%	94.4%	8.2%	32.3%	35.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	39.0%	94.3%	8.2%	47.3%	35.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	45.4%	94.4%	13.6%	51.8%	38.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	45.4%	94.4%	15.0%	51.8%	38.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	45.4%	94.4%	15.0%	51.8%	38.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	45.4%	94.4%	15.0%	51.8%	38.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	44.1%	94.4%	15.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	44.1%	94.4%	15.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	44.1%	94.4%	15.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	44.1%	94.4%	15.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	44.1%	94.4%	15.0%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	44.1%	95.4%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	44.1%	95.4%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	44.1%	95.4%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	37.5%	95.4%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	37.4%	95.1%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	12.9%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	8.8%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	8.8%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	8.8%	50.0%	29.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	8.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	8.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	8.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	8.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	8.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	34.7%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	7.8%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	21.9%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	21.9%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	21.9%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	37.4%	85.3%	21.9%	24.7%	23.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	42.9%	85.3%	21.9%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	42.9%	85.3%	21.9%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	42.9%	85.3%	21.9%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	42.9%	85.3%	21.9%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	42.9%	85.3%	21.9%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	42.9%	87.2%	15.1%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	42.9%	87.2%	15.1%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	42.9%	87.2%	15.1%	55.3%	26.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	36.1%	86.8%	15.1%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	36.1%	86.8%	15.1%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	36.1%	80.0%	15.1%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	36.1%	80.0%	15.1%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	36.1%	80.0%	8.5%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	36.1%	80.0%	8.5%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	36.1%	80.0%	8.5%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	36.1%	80.0%	8.5%	55.4%	26.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	8.5%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	8.5%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	8.5%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	8.5%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	41.0%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	9.0%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	39.2%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	39.2%	45.7%	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	43.9%	80.0%	39.2%	45.7%	16.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	85%	80.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	76.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	75.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	75.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	17%	73.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 77°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗