KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

27%

20%

20%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

WN2NO 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.30u · WN2 −65.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	11.0%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	44.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.5%	15.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	82.5%	52.1%	0.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	76.8%	23.7%	32.3%	—	43.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	12.5%	57.6%	13.8%	9.3%	—	34.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.1%	23.0%	25.5%	2.9%	—	14.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	15.2%	23.2%	2.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	2.4%	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	10.1%	29.9%	1.4%	—	9.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	17.8%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	16.0%	27.4%	2.1%	—	5.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	7.4%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	10.2%	18.3%	3.2%	—	9.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	10.0%	14.6%	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	10.3%	17.0%	4.2%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	7.2%	17.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.4%	19.8%	4.5%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	9.2%	21.4%	0.0%	—	4.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	6.1%	19.1%	2.4%	1.4%	1.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	4.0%	17.5%	1.7%	—	3.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	11.2%	17.4%	2.1%	—	7.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.6%	10.3%	1.9%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	4.3%	9.5%	1.7%	0.7%	3.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	5.4%	7.1%	2.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.0%	5.5%	3.2%	1.6%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	80.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	75.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	72.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗