KDFW / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

27%

20%

20%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.7¢Risks 34.70u

WN2NO 65.3¢Risks 65.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.30u · WN2 −65.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:43+00:00	36.0%	67.8%	26.7%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:30+00:00	36.0%	67.8%	26.7%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	36.0%	67.8%	26.7%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	36.0%	67.8%	26.7%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	36.0%	67.8%	26.7%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:37+00:00	36.0%	67.8%	18.2%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	36.0%	79.9%	18.2%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:58+00:00	36.0%	79.9%	18.2%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:08+00:00	43.6%	79.9%	18.2%	92.7%	13.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	43.6%	79.9%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:37+00:00	43.6%	79.9%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	43.6%	80.4%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	43.6%	80.4%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	43.6%	80.4%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	43.6%	80.4%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	43.6%	80.4%	18.3%	92.7%	13.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:34+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	18.3%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	18.3%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	18.3%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	18.3%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:41+00:00	2.8%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:49+00:00	26.7%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	26.7%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	26.7%	80.4%	3.5%	73.1%	83.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:33+00:00	16.7%	69.1%	5.4%	32.0%	42.7%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	16.7%	69.1%	5.4%	32.0%	42.7%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	16.7%	69.1%	5.4%	32.0%	42.7%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	16.7%	69.1%	2.9%	32.0%	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	16.7%	69.1%	2.9%	32.0%	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	16.7%	69.1%	2.9%	32.0%	42.7%
2026-10-14T19:43:37+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	2.9%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-14T20:28:51+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	2.9%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	2.9%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	2.9%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	2.9%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T00:15:13+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	12.6%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T01:46:20+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T04:02:25+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T04:47:58+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	3.4%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T05:33:20+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	4.7%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	4.7%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	13.9%	69.1%	4.7%	33.2%	34.9%
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	10.0%	69.1%	4.7%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	10.0%	69.1%	4.7%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	10.0%	69.1%	4.7%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	10.0%	69.1%	4.7%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	10.0%	69.1%	4.7%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	10.0%	69.1%	2.6%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	10.0%	65.1%	2.6%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	10.0%	65.1%	2.6%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	19.8%	65.1%	2.6%	27.4%	19.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	19.8%	65.1%	2.6%	27.4%	19.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	19.8%	66.8%	2.6%	27.4%	19.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	67%	80.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	76.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	20%	75.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	20%	75.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	3%	72.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261019-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗