KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

71%

51%

31%

26%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

WN2NO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.00u · WN2 −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	62.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	31.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	74.1%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	57.8%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	57.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	2.2%	37.4%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	81.1%	47.9%	0.8%	—	56.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	17.0%	60.1%	25.4%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	46.9%	39.4%	22.2%	—	24.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	34.5%	49.2%	9.7%	—	36.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	43.4%	65.5%	13.8%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	11.1%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	26.9%	43.0%	13.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	29.4%	38.5%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	33.0%	40.9%	19.6%	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	32.6%	36.1%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	33.9%	38.5%	20.3%	—	35.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	33.5%	38.2%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	28.5%	37.8%	4.4%	0.0%	14.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	30.7%	34.5%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	32.1%	30.1%	16.2%	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	25.8%	35.7%	0.0%	—	24.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	21.5%	35.2%	13.4%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	33.6%	32.5%	13.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	43.8%	29.8%	11.2%	17.4%	43.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	33.7%	33.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	81.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	77.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗