KDFW / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

71%

51%

31%

26%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.0¢Risks 54.00u

WN2NO 46.0¢Risks 46.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.00u · WN2 −46.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:06+00:00	56.4%	94.4%	21.8%	52.8%	54.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	56.4%	94.4%	29.6%	52.8%	54.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	56.4%	94.4%	29.6%	52.8%	54.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	56.4%	94.4%	29.6%	52.8%	54.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	56.4%	94.4%	29.6%	52.8%	54.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	35.9%	94.4%	29.6%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	35.9%	94.4%	29.6%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	35.9%	94.4%	29.6%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	35.9%	94.4%	29.6%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	35.9%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	35.8%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	35.8%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	39.7%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	39.7%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	39.7%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	39.7%	94.4%	28.8%	37.8%	62.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	42.2%	93.8%	21.0%	50.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	42.2%	93.8%	21.0%	50.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	42.2%	93.8%	21.0%	50.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	42.2%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	42.2%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	42.2%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	41.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	48.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:38+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	48.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	48.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	25.1%	50.8%	48.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	25.1%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	45.7%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:12+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	21.0%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	23.4%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	23.4%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:47+00:00	46.5%	93.8%	23.4%	54.8%	48.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:46+00:00	50.0%	93.8%	23.4%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	50.0%	93.8%	23.4%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	50.0%	93.8%	23.4%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	50.0%	93.8%	23.4%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	50.0%	93.8%	23.4%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:13+00:00	50.0%	94.8%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	50.0%	94.8%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	50.0%	94.8%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:53+00:00	44.4%	94.8%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	44.4%	94.2%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:06+00:00	44.4%	84.1%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:33+00:00	44.4%	84.1%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:41+00:00	44.4%	84.1%	17.1%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	44.4%	84.1%	15.7%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	44.4%	84.1%	15.7%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	44.4%	84.1%	15.7%	59.7%	40.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	39.0%	84.1%	15.7%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-17T20:41:31+00:00	39.0%	84.1%	15.7%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	39.0%	84.1%	15.7%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	39.0%	84.1%	15.7%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	39.0%	84.1%	15.7%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	39.0%	84.2%	11.2%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	39.0%	84.2%	11.2%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	39.0%	84.2%	11.2%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	40.8%	84.2%	11.2%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	40.8%	84.2%	11.2%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	40.8%	84.2%	11.2%	34.4%	35.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	37.4%	76.3%	14.4%	58.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	37.4%	76.3%	14.4%	58.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	37.4%	76.3%	8.3%	58.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	37.4%	76.3%	8.3%	58.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	37.4%	76.3%	8.3%	58.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	37.4%	76.3%	8.3%	58.7%	28.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	8.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	8.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	8.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	8.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	41.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	9.8%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	30.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	30.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	43.2%	76.3%	30.3%	55.8%	20.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	51.0%	76.3%	30.3%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	51.0%	76.3%	30.3%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	51.0%	76.3%	30.3%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	51.0%	76.3%	30.3%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	51.0%	76.3%	30.3%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	51.0%	82.3%	25.7%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	51.0%	82.3%	25.7%	71.4%	30.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	51.0%	82.3%	25.7%	71.4%	30.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	82%	82.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	82.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	71%	81.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	79.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	77.7°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	77.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261020-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 80°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗