KDFW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 15:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

51%

33%

19%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.05u · WN2 −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	48.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	33.0%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	60.7%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	61.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	45.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	0.0%	36.1%	—	33.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	35.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	38.2%	34.3%	0.6%	30.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	47.1%	43.4%	31.0%	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	38.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	33.7%	21.6%	32.3%	33.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	31.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	35.9%	35.2%	18.4%	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	44.3%	—	25.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	24.5%	22.5%	9.0%	18.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	7.2%	35.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	24.1%	34.6%	11.8%	27.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	23.5%	41.1%	—	22.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	23.0%	28.2%	9.0%	20.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	25.3%	22.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	27.1%	19.0%	7.2%	27.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	24.1%	22.6%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	85.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	81.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗