KDFW / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST37%Oct 19 · 15:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

51%

33%

19%

Consensus

37%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.05u · WN2 −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:03+00:00	33.5%	63.4%	31.5%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	33.5%	63.4%	31.5%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	33.5%	63.4%	31.5%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:35+00:00	33.5%	63.4%	31.5%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:40+00:00	33.5%	63.4%	31.5%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:30+00:00	33.5%	63.4%	28.1%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	33.5%	63.1%	28.1%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:31+00:00	33.5%	63.1%	28.1%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	44.3%	63.1%	28.1%	58.1%	4.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	44.4%	63.1%	28.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T15:34:28+00:00	44.4%	64.3%	28.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:08+00:00	44.4%	64.3%	28.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	44.4%	64.3%	35.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	44.4%	64.3%	35.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	44.4%	64.3%	35.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	44.4%	64.3%	35.4%	58.0%	4.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:19+00:00	25.2%	64.3%	35.4%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:32+00:00	25.2%	64.3%	35.4%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	25.2%	64.3%	35.4%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:52+00:00	25.2%	64.3%	35.4%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	25.2%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	25.3%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	25.3%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:49+00:00	31.8%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	31.8%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	31.8%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	31.8%	64.3%	31.8%	47.5%	61.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:39+00:00	28.3%	55.4%	22.0%	42.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	28.3%	55.4%	22.0%	42.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	28.3%	55.4%	22.0%	42.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:26+00:00	28.3%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	28.3%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:44+00:00	28.3%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	67.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:12+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	58.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:39+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	58.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	58.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	26.0%	42.2%	58.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:09+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	26.0%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:59+00:00	30.2%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:09+00:00	33.5%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	33.5%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	33.5%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:41+00:00	33.5%	55.4%	36.6%	51.8%	58.3%
2026-10-18T04:14:25+00:00	26.6%	62.2%	17.8%	37.1%	46.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	26.6%	62.2%	22.5%	37.1%	46.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	26.6%	62.2%	22.5%	37.1%	46.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	26.6%	62.2%	22.5%	37.1%	46.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	26.6%	62.2%	22.5%	37.1%	46.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:33+00:00	23.6%	62.2%	22.5%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:12+00:00	23.6%	62.2%	22.5%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	23.6%	62.2%	22.5%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	23.6%	62.2%	22.5%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:56+00:00	23.6%	62.2%	22.5%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	23.6%	60.9%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	23.6%	60.9%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	23.6%	60.9%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	23.6%	60.9%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	23.6%	60.9%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	23.6%	51.3%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	23.6%	51.3%	13.0%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	23.6%	51.3%	10.9%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	23.6%	51.3%	10.9%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	23.6%	51.3%	10.9%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	23.6%	51.3%	10.9%	42.1%	37.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	10.9%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	10.9%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	10.9%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	10.9%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	8.6%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	16.7%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	16.7%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	24.3%	51.3%	16.7%	38.2%	37.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	26.4%	51.3%	16.7%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	26.4%	51.3%	16.7%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	26.4%	51.3%	16.7%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	26.4%	51.3%	16.7%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	26.4%	51.3%	16.7%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	26.4%	55.6%	8.6%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	26.4%	55.6%	8.6%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	26.4%	55.6%	8.6%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:01+00:00	19.3%	55.6%	8.6%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:01+00:00	19.3%	55.6%	8.5%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:47+00:00	19.3%	51.4%	8.5%	50.9%	32.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:09+00:00	19.3%	51.4%	8.5%	50.9%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	59%	86.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	85.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	85.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	83.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	81.8°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	80.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261022-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗