KDFW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

32%

32%

24%

20%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

WN2NO 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.90u · WN2 −65.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	2.8%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	26.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	15.8%	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	22.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	17.2%	—	18.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	14.7%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	0.1%	28.2%	—	23.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	20.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	5.8%	14.1%	0.5%	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	9.6%	16.1%	9.0%	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	8.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	85.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	82.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	82.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	81.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	81.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗