KDFW / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Dallas, TXHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST35%Oct 19 · 12:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

49%

32%

32%

24%

20%

Consensus

35%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

WN2NO 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.90u · WN2 −65.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:48:16+00:00	25.4%	56.8%	20.6%	34.3%	7.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:49+00:00	25.4%	56.8%	20.6%	34.3%	7.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	25.4%	56.8%	20.6%	34.3%	7.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:12+00:00	26.6%	56.8%	20.6%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:00+00:00	26.6%	56.8%	20.6%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:32+00:00	26.6%	48.7%	20.6%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	26.6%	48.7%	20.6%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:09+00:00	26.6%	48.7%	22.3%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:32+00:00	26.6%	48.7%	22.3%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:48+00:00	26.6%	48.7%	22.3%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	26.6%	48.7%	22.3%	34.3%	7.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	22.3%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	22.3%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	22.3%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	22.3%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:09+00:00	23.3%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:36+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T04:31:10+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	21.7%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	22.9%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	22.9%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:22+00:00	24.9%	48.7%	22.9%	31.5%	33.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:26+00:00	24.1%	48.7%	22.9%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	24.1%	48.7%	22.9%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	24.1%	48.7%	22.9%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	24.1%	48.7%	22.9%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:20+00:00	24.1%	48.7%	22.9%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:07+00:00	24.1%	48.6%	19.6%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:37+00:00	24.1%	48.6%	19.6%	31.9%	31.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	24.1%	48.6%	19.6%	31.9%	31.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	85.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	82.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	32%	82.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	81.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	81.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KDFW

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDFW-20261025-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 11:48 UTC

Original listing: Dallas high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗