KDSM / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 20 · 14:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

97%

92%

80%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 90.1¢Risks 45.05u

ICONNO 9.9¢Risks 4.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.95u · ICON −4.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	95.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	94.1%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	95.3%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	80.4%	—	—	—	—	92.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.1%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	98.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	99.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	96.9%	—	—	98.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	88.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	88.1%	—	—	92.3%	—	97.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	99.7%	96.4%	—	98.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	84.0%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	79.5%	99.9%	98.2%	—	98.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	98.2%	86.0%	95.0%	—	98.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	89.9%	63.9%	98.1%	—	95.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	88.1%	73.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	93.2%	67.0%	83.9%	—	93.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.5%	89.2%	65.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.1%	75.6%	69.5%	85.6%	—	90.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	91.2%	73.2%	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	93.2%	73.7%	96.8%	—	94.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	93.0%	76.6%	—	—	91.6%
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	97.8%	77.3%	99.6%	—	91.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	92.8%	75.5%	—	—	88.4%
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	86.9%	76.2%	83.1%	82.4%	88.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	87.7%	81.0%	85.2%	—	92.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	91.5%	75.8%	81.0%	85.3%	93.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	91.3%	67.5%	90.8%	—	92.6%
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	85.6%	91.5%	77.3%	96.3%	—	94.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	93.6%	63.9%	98.2%	—	94.4%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	89.9%	60.6%	93.9%	78.0%	94.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	88.2%	50.0%	94.2%	—	97.3%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	85.4%	61.4%	93.7%	81.8%	96.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	81.9%	56.0%	93.5%	—	99.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	79.7%	82.9%	66.8%	95.9%	93.4%	98.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	79.7%	87.7%	85.9%	94.7%	—	97.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	73.1°F	3.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	>99%	69.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	97%	66.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-20 06:00	0.0009
IFS HRES	92%	63.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0069
ICON	80%	61.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	0.0392
National Blend	64%	60.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-20 06:00	0.1289
NWS forecast	56%	59.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-20 02:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20260921-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 59°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗