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KDSM / Mon Sep 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 59°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESSep 20 · 14:33 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
>99%
EPS
>99%
AIFS
97%
HRES
92%
ICON
80%
Consensus
97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 90.1¢Risks 45.05u
VS
ICONNO 9.9¢Risks 4.95u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.95u · ICON −4.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00AIFS Single: 95.4% · 2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T07:45:48+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T11:31:36+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 97.3% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00AIFS Single: 97.0% · 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T07:45:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.6% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-09-20T11:31:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.8% · 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T07:45:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T11:31:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 100.0% · 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00IFS HRES: 95.3% · 2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T07:45:48+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T11:31:36+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00IFS HRES: 91.7% · 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00ICON: 88.9% · 2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:00ICON: 88.9% · 2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T07:45:48+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T11:31:36+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:00ICON: 80.2% · 2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:0009-20 03:1409-20 09:1609-20 14:33
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-20T03:14:49+00:0095.4%99.6%100.0%95.3%88.9%
2026-09-20T04:00:04+00:0095.4%99.6%100.0%95.3%88.9%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:0095.4%99.6%100.0%95.3%80.2%
2026-09-20T05:30:15+00:0095.4%99.6%100.0%95.3%80.2%
2026-09-20T06:15:20+00:0095.4%99.6%100.0%95.3%80.2%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:0095.4%99.6%100.0%95.3%80.2%
2026-09-20T07:45:48+00:0097.3%99.6%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:13+00:0097.3%99.6%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:18+00:0097.3%99.6%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:22+00:0097.3%99.6%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:27+00:0097.3%99.6%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T11:31:36+00:0097.3%99.8%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:0097.3%99.8%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T13:01:58+00:0097.3%99.8%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T13:47:04+00:0097.0%99.8%100.0%91.7%80.2%
2026-09-20T14:33:35+00:0097.0%99.8%100.0%91.7%80.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2>99%73.1°F3.9°F2026-09-17 12:000.0000
IFS Ensemble>99%69.0°F3.7°F2026-09-20 00:000.0000
AIFS Single97%66.2°F4.1°F2026-09-20 06:000.0009
IFS HRES92%63.7°F3.8°F2026-09-20 00:000.0069
ICON80%61.5°F3.5°F2026-09-20 00:000.0392
National Blend64%60.0°F4.2°F2026-09-20 06:000.1289
NWS forecast56%59.0°F3.1°F2026-09-20 02:000.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20260921-TMAX-GE59
Opened Sep 20 · 03:14 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 59°F · Mon Sep 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗