KDSM / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IALow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

64%

43%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.05u

EPSNO 58.9¢Risks 58.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.95u · EPS −58.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	77.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	88.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	25.9%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	52.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	56.7%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	55.6%	81.6%	5.1%	—	4.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	80.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	79.0%	2.4%	—	10.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	56.8%	51.5%	6.0%	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	46.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	90.7%	36.7%	9.3%	—	11.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	62.3%	23.2%	3.6%	—	15.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	40.7%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	43.9%	19.6%	6.8%	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	31.0%	20.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	50.0%	19.6%	8.3%	—	19.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	69.1%	21.0%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	84.1%	26.3%	10.7%	—	23.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	73.5%	19.0%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	72.4%	21.9%	9.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	71.2%	25.3%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	75.3%	20.6%	5.6%	93.8%	24.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	74.2%	16.8%	4.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.8%	77.6%	22.4%	4.2%	—	24.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	84.8%	19.9%	4.3%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	77.3%	14.4%	0.9%	96.0%	19.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	75.2%	13.5%	0.4%	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	65.7%	7.4%	0.6%	95.0%	22.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	59.7%	6.7%	0.1%	—	15.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	60.1%	3.5%	1.8%	94.5%	16.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	63.3%	4.1%	8.0%	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	63.9%	3.4%	22.6%	93.4%	42.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	29.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6162
ICON	64%	31.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4122
WeatherNext 2	43%	33.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1832
IFS HRES	19%	35.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0372
IFS Ensemble	4%	35.2°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0013
NWS forecast	<1%	41.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗