KDSM / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IALow ≤ 32°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

64%

43%

19%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.05u

EPSNO 58.9¢Risks 58.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.95u · EPS −58.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:20+00:00	82.3%	0.1%	40.3%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	82.3%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	82.3%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	82.3%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:19+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:05+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	50.0%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	51.9%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:20+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	51.9%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	81.7%	1.9%	51.9%	26.1%	84.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:34+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:49+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:02+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T00:14:42+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:11+00:00	79.0%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:18+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:37+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	50.0%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	51.9%	30.2%	71.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	79.9%	1.9%	51.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	79.9%	1.9%	51.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	79.9%	1.9%	51.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	79.9%	1.9%	51.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	79.9%	1.9%	51.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	79.9%	1.9%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	79.9%	4.8%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	79.9%	4.8%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:11+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	52.2%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	48.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	48.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	48.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	76.7%	4.8%	48.9%	24.7%	75.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	81.4%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T04:24:11+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	51.1%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T05:10:28+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T06:41:04+00:00	80.6%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	75.9%
2026-10-16T07:26:15+00:00	81.0%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:24+00:00	81.0%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:36+00:00	81.0%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:42+00:00	81.0%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	81.0%	4.8%	48.9%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:18+00:00	81.0%	3.6%	48.8%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:37+00:00	81.0%	3.6%	48.8%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:49+00:00	81.0%	3.6%	48.8%	24.0%	76.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:32+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	48.8%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:47+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	48.8%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:32+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	48.8%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:55+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	48.8%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:11+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	48.8%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:21+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:37+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	83.4%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	76.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:02+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	64.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:29+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	64.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:46+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	64.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:54+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	51.2%	17.5%	64.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:05+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	51.2%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:31+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:41+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	82.6%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:07+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:20+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:28+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T04:41:48+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	48.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	42.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	42.8%	19.3%	64.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	78.5%	3.6%	42.8%	19.3%	64.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	78%	29.9°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.6162
ICON	64%	31.3°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4122
WeatherNext 2	43%	33.1°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.1832
IFS HRES	19%	35.1°F	3.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0372
IFS Ensemble	4%	35.2°F	1.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0013
NWS forecast	<1%	41.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

Low ≤ 32°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261017-TMIN-LE32
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines freezes: low ≤ 32°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗