KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

37%

34%

31%

24%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

HRESNO 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.20u · HRES −63.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	33.0%	7.4%	0.1%	—	31.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	61.6%	17.9%	21.5%	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	44.7%	21.6%	23.4%	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	34.5%	3.4%	20.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	33.8%	18.4%	12.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	16.2%	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	23.4%	25.5%	7.3%	—	12.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	20.9%	24.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	20.9%	23.0%	4.6%	—	10.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	20.3%	16.5%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	20.3%	14.7%	7.5%	—	10.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	19.7%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	17.6%	14.5%	7.1%	—	10.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.7%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	11.9%	10.9%	6.2%	—	10.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.4%	8.3%	11.2%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	5.7%	14.0%	8.5%	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	7.0%	13.9%	6.6%	—	10.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	6.3%	15.9%	6.7%	15.9%	10.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	6.8%	16.6%	4.9%	—	7.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	4.0%	15.7%	4.3%	13.4%	6.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	10.4%	14.7%	3.2%	—	7.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	16.3%	20.2%	4.4%	29.3%	10.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	17.2%	8.0%	1.4%	—	2.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	15.2%	8.9%	0.8%	27.6%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	41.8%	19.2%	5.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	50%	67.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2500
ICON	37%	65.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1369
WeatherNext 2	34%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1176
IFS Ensemble	31%	65.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0955
IFS HRES	24%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0557
National Blend	23%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0524

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗