KDSM / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

37%

34%

31%

24%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

HRESNO 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +63.20u · HRES −63.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T15:41:31+00:00	46.0%	44.8%	42.3%	30.8%	54.1%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	46.0%	44.8%	42.3%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	46.0%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	46.0%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	46.0%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	48.1%	31.0%	54.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	48.1%	27.5%	54.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	38.9%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	46.8%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	54.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	55.2%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	36.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	55.2%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	36.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	55.2%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	36.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	55.2%	44.8%	39.5%	27.2%	36.2%
2026-10-14T10:33:20+00:00	55.2%	44.8%	39.5%	23.6%	36.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	34.3%	23.6%	36.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	34.3%	23.6%	36.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	55.2%	30.9%	34.3%	23.6%	36.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	34.3%	23.6%	36.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	50.0%	30.9%	34.3%	23.6%	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2970
AIFS Single	50%	67.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.2500
ICON	37%	65.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1369
WeatherNext 2	34%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.1176
IFS Ensemble	31%	65.9°F	3.2°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0955
IFS HRES	24%	63.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0557
National Blend	23%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0524

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 13 · 15:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗