KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

60%

56%

39%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

ICONNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · ICON −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	28.9%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	2.8%	55.4%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	82.5%	20.9%	3.0%	—	61.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	75.7%	1.1%	35.7%	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.5%	52.3%	6.3%	30.3%	—	52.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	24.2%	47.6%	28.1%	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	63.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	59.9%	36.9%	33.8%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	7.8%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	43.9%	29.1%	28.4%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	19.0%	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	17.8%	45.4%	20.9%	—	31.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	30.9%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	17.7%	43.2%	17.7%	—	31.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	27.4%	40.1%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	34.0%	52.1%	28.5%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	42.6%	60.5%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	41.3%	61.8%	30.1%	0.0%	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	45.5%	66.4%	0.0%	—	34.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	39.6%	59.2%	28.0%	57.0%	35.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.3%	57.2%	61.9%	30.4%	—	39.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	52.5%	63.4%	35.4%	—	48.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	62.7%	52.6%	30.2%	—	34.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	54.0%	40.7%	25.1%	69.3%	38.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	67.5%	43.1%	33.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.0%	82.8%	55.8%	34.5%	74.4%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	39%	64.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗