KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

86%

60%

56%

39%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 64.8¢Risks 64.80u

ICONNO 35.2¢Risks 35.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +35.20u · ICON −35.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:48+00:00	86.9%	52.4%	81.3%	45.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:23+00:00	86.9%	52.4%	85.7%	45.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.9%	52.4%	85.7%	45.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	86.9%	52.4%	85.7%	45.5%	41.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:30+00:00	85.5%	52.4%	85.7%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	85.5%	52.4%	85.7%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:38+00:00	85.5%	52.4%	85.7%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:49+00:00	85.5%	52.4%	85.7%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:54+00:00	85.5%	52.4%	85.7%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T11:32:05+00:00	85.5%	56.6%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T12:17:27+00:00	85.5%	56.6%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T13:02:33+00:00	85.5%	56.6%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	85.5%	56.6%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T14:39:17+00:00	85.5%	56.4%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:46+00:00	85.5%	50.0%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	85.5%	50.0%	87.1%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	85.5%	50.0%	85.6%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:49+00:00	85.5%	50.0%	85.6%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:56+00:00	85.5%	50.0%	85.6%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:03+00:00	85.5%	50.0%	85.6%	53.9%	37.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:12+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	85.6%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	85.6%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	85.6%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	85.6%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:12+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:54+00:00	83.8%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:13+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:21+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:29+00:00	87.6%	50.0%	81.7%	52.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:48+00:00	81.3%	60.1%	92.1%	65.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	81.3%	60.0%	92.1%	65.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:58+00:00	81.3%	60.0%	92.1%	65.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:07+00:00	81.3%	60.0%	86.4%	65.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:27+00:00	81.3%	60.0%	86.4%	65.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	81.3%	60.0%	86.4%	65.7%	37.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:07+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:25+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:32+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:41+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:52+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:06+00:00	84.5%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:34+00:00	90.7%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	90.7%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:56+00:00	90.7%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:04+00:00	90.7%	60.0%	86.4%	56.4%	38.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	91%	70.7°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	68.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	66.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	56%	66.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	39%	64.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗