KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

45%

27%

24%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

ICONNO 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.30u · ICON −61.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	14.8%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	42.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	0.8%	35.5%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	65.7%	9.0%	0.8%	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	55.8%	0.2%	17.9%	—	34.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	30.3%	1.8%	13.8%	—	30.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	9.7%	25.5%	11.9%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	39.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.3%	35.3%	16.8%	14.8%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	2.0%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	20.8%	11.3%	10.9%	—	14.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	6.0%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	5.3%	20.9%	6.6%	—	11.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	11.3%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	4.9%	18.3%	4.9%	—	11.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	8.8%	15.8%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	11.8%	23.5%	9.0%	—	11.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	16.3%	29.8%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	14.9%	30.1%	9.0%	0.0%	11.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	27.6%	16.8%	33.6%	0.0%	—	10.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	12.7%	26.0%	7.2%	24.2%	10.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.4%	23.4%	27.3%	7.8%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	19.1%	27.6%	9.5%	—	16.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	25.9%	18.2%	6.8%	—	8.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	18.2%	10.7%	4.6%	30.7%	9.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	27.6%	11.1%	7.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	44.2%	17.2%	6.8%	33.1%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	70.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	65.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	66.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	63.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗