KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

45%

27%

24%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.7¢Risks 38.70u

ICONNO 61.3¢Risks 61.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.30u · ICON −61.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:23+00:00	56.4%	46.9%	61.1%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	56.4%	46.9%	61.1%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	56.4%	46.9%	61.1%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	56.4%	46.9%	61.1%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	56.4%	46.9%	61.1%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:32+00:00	56.4%	46.9%	50.0%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:49+00:00	56.4%	49.1%	50.0%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	56.4%	49.1%	50.0%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:06+00:00	58.5%	49.1%	50.0%	59.4%	16.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	58.5%	49.1%	50.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:17+00:00	58.5%	49.1%	50.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	58.5%	51.7%	50.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	58.5%	51.7%	46.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	58.5%	51.7%	46.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	58.5%	51.7%	46.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	58.5%	51.7%	46.0%	59.4%	16.1%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	46.0%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	46.0%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	46.0%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	46.0%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	48.6%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	61.9%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	61.9%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	61.9%	51.7%	52.4%	60.0%	75.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:12+00:00	53.2%	31.5%	41.3%	29.6%	55.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:55+00:00	53.2%	31.5%	41.3%	29.6%	55.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:17+00:00	53.2%	31.5%	45.2%	29.6%	55.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	53.2%	31.5%	45.2%	29.6%	55.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:37+00:00	53.2%	31.5%	45.2%	29.6%	55.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:46+00:00	62.0%	31.5%	45.2%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T08:35:50+00:00	62.0%	31.5%	45.2%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T09:21:45+00:00	62.0%	31.5%	45.2%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T10:07:32+00:00	62.0%	31.5%	45.2%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T10:52:51+00:00	62.0%	31.5%	45.2%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T11:39:23+00:00	62.0%	31.5%	40.4%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T12:24:52+00:00	62.0%	29.8%	40.4%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T13:10:21+00:00	62.0%	29.8%	40.4%	18.9%	33.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:50+00:00	44.8%	29.8%	40.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:25+00:00	44.8%	29.8%	40.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:11+00:00	44.8%	23.6%	40.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	44.8%	23.6%	40.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:23+00:00	44.8%	23.6%	38.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:44+00:00	44.8%	23.6%	38.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	44.8%	23.6%	38.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	44.8%	23.6%	38.4%	18.9%	34.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:17+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	38.4%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-15T20:51:30+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	38.4%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-15T21:36:43+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	38.4%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-15T22:21:50+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	38.4%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-15T23:07:03+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-15T23:52:14+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-16T00:37:23+00:00	62.8%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	63.6%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-16T02:08:19+00:00	63.6%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-16T02:53:32+00:00	63.6%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%
2026-10-16T03:38:41+00:00	63.6%	23.6%	44.7%	26.8%	13.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	64%	70.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	45%	68.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	65.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	66.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	63.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗