KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

30%

16%

14%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.15u · EPS −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	8.5%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	0.3%	23.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	52.1%	4.5%	0.3%	—	27.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	41.3%	0.1%	10.0%	—	22.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	18.4%	0.6%	7.0%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.5%	4.5%	14.5%	5.7%	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	21.3%	8.3%	7.1%	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	0.6%	11.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	10.5%	5.0%	4.7%	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	2.2%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	1.9%	10.2%	2.5%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	4.6%	9.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	1.6%	8.2%	1.6%	—	4.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	3.2%	6.6%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	4.4%	10.8%	3.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	6.5%	14.4%	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	5.6%	14.3%	2.9%	0.0%	4.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	6.3%	16.1%	0.0%	—	3.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	4.2%	11.0%	2.1%	10.0%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	9.2%	11.4%	2.2%	—	3.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	6.7%	11.2%	2.6%	—	5.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	9.8%	6.0%	1.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	5.7%	2.8%	0.9%	12.0%	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	9.8%	2.7%	1.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	19.1%	4.7%	1.3%	12.2%	6.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	21.3%	3.4%	1.0%	—	3.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	16.1%	5.7%	1.1%	11.0%	3.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	43.4%	10.7%	2.8%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	37%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1399
IFS HRES	31%	67.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0986
WeatherNext 2	30%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0876
National Blend	24%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0571
ICON	16%	64.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0256
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0204

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗