KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 71°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 14:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

31%

30%

16%

14%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 25.9¢Risks 25.85u

EPSNO 74.2¢Risks 74.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +74.15u · EPS −74.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:15:57+00:00	47.9%	34.8%	36.6%	47.5%	68.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	47.9%	34.8%	36.6%	47.5%	68.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	47.9%	34.8%	36.6%	47.5%	68.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	47.9%	34.8%	36.6%	47.5%	68.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	47.9%	34.8%	36.6%	47.5%	68.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:31+00:00	44.8%	34.8%	36.6%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	44.8%	34.8%	36.6%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	44.8%	34.8%	36.6%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	44.8%	34.8%	36.6%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	31.5%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	31.5%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	31.5%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	44.8%	20.6%	31.5%	38.6%	62.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	42.5%	20.6%	31.5%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	42.5%	22.3%	31.5%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T15:41:32+00:00	42.5%	22.3%	31.5%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	42.5%	22.3%	31.5%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	42.5%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	42.5%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	42.5%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	63.3%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	41.8%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	43.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	41.8%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	43.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	41.8%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	43.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	41.8%	22.3%	29.3%	38.6%	43.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	41.8%	22.3%	29.3%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	41.8%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	41.8%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	41.8%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	40.3%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	43.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:27+00:00	36.6%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	15.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	36.6%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	15.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:46+00:00	36.6%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	15.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:53+00:00	36.6%	22.8%	38.0%	36.9%	15.8%
2026-10-14T10:33:21+00:00	36.6%	22.8%	38.0%	31.4%	15.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:50+00:00	36.6%	14.3%	29.7%	31.4%	15.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:13+00:00	36.6%	14.3%	29.7%	31.4%	15.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	36.6%	14.3%	29.7%	31.4%	15.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	37.3%	14.3%	29.7%	31.4%	15.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:50+00:00	37.4%	14.3%	29.6%	31.4%	16.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.2894
AIFS Single	37%	68.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1399
IFS HRES	31%	67.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0986
WeatherNext 2	30%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0876
National Blend	24%	68.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.0571
ICON	16%	64.6°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0256
IFS Ensemble	14%	67.4°F	2.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0204

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 13 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗