KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 3.23u

EPSNO 93.5¢Risks 46.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.77u · EPS −46.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	0.0%	2.9%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	11.9%	0.2%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.6%	0.0%	0.5%	—	2.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.3%	0.0%	0.2%	—	1.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	0.7%	0.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.2%	0.2%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	12%	69.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0156
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	8%	68.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0064
AIFS Single	6%	69.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0035
WeatherNext 2	3%	69.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0012
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗