KDSM / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Des Moines, IAHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 14 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.5¢Risks 3.23u

EPSNO 93.5¢Risks 46.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.77u · EPS −46.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:24+00:00	7.4%	3.5%	7.9%	11.8%	2.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:27+00:00	7.4%	3.5%	7.9%	11.8%	2.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	7.4%	3.5%	7.9%	11.8%	2.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:59+00:00	7.4%	3.5%	7.9%	11.8%	2.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	7.4%	3.5%	7.9%	11.8%	2.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	2.8%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:43+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	2.8%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	2.8%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	2.8%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:10+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:18+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	5.1%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:56+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T04:15:58+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:45+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:11+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	9.7%	2.8%	4.0%	12.2%	41.2%
2026-10-13T08:03:31+00:00	7.4%	2.8%	4.0%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	7.4%	2.8%	4.0%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	7.4%	2.8%	4.0%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:56+00:00	7.4%	2.8%	4.0%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:19+00:00	7.4%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00	7.4%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	7.4%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	7.4%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:04+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:32+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	2.2%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:10+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:18+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:23+00:00	6.6%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	25.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:28+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	12.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:35+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	12.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	12.5%
2026-10-13T21:43:16+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	1.9%	8.7%	12.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:24+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	1.9%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:35+00:00	6.3%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	6.3%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	6.3%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:48+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:53+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:59+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:16+00:00	5.9%	0.4%	3.4%	8.0%	12.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	12%	69.4°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0156
NWS forecast	10%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	0.0106
IFS HRES	8%	68.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0064
AIFS Single	6%	69.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	0.0035
WeatherNext 2	3%	69.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	0.0012
National Blend	<1%	69.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KDSM

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KDSM-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Des Moines runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗